Welcome to the Belief3 Index
In this public Belief3 Index we are presenting: Belief in HONESTY across select industries; Belief in select ECONOMIC indicators; and Belief in select SOCIAL causes.
WHY BELIEF? TWO REASONS:
1. Culture (aka lifestyle) = Belief + Attitude
2. Belief = Many beliefs that constantly change.
METHODOLOGY
This is a national sample collected over four weeks between February and March 2023. In week one, the Belief3 system establishes a baseline for all of the monitored issues. In week two, we’ll begin to track how belief on these issues change relative to one another as the population is exposed to life. Week one belief data gives us an initial insight into the complex belief structure in the US population.
WEEK 1 / FEB / MAR 2023
THE B3 HONESTY INDEX / W1
The Honesty index sets forth a sampling of industries and how honest the US population views them. If you are seen as Honest, customers and potential customers will believe what you say and your employees will believe in the company.
COMMENT:
Every measured issue is below the 50% threshold, which indicates Honesty for these sectors is not expected to improve. Honesty increasing across the US is seen as unlikely, which is not a good sign. The role of Government (law enforcement) and how it interacts with societies will likely be rocky as Spring and Summer approach. Isolated protests should be expected this Spring/Summer.
Business should be prepared for the turbulence. Political fighting, especially on social media, is driving the perception of US honesty down.
THE B3 ECONOMIC INDEX / W1
If consumers “believe” the economy is improving, they will spend more now. If not, they’ll spend less. By knowing what potential customers believe about the economy, you can plan, time and position your brand for maximum success.
But let’s go one step deeper because with Belief3 you can identify the core economic indicators that drive sales and learn the indicators that impact them to anticipate, or shape, change.
COMMENT:
US consumers are bullish on spending, but it is a very specific type of spending. Online sales of pet and beauty products show the greatest promise. The low US honesty score (see Honesty) and high crime score (see social issues) are consistent with consumers focusing their purchases on self-care items (pets and beauty). Not surprising, spending on mental health is seen as increasing. The low outlook for luxury goods, and social signaling associated with those purchases, reinforces this inward-looking pivot where money will be spent on making the individual feel better. Automotive sales continue to be hampered by low inventory and high prices that are not in line with household incomes that are facing inflationary pressure.
THE B3 SOCIAL INDEX / W1
Don’t understand social issues? We do. They are all Belief based. Watch as Belief on these social issues change and then look out for our Blog. We’ll let you into the secrets of how and why Belief on these issues changes. If you want to get a head start, look at the Blog post on “Loneliness” and how Covid had a different impact on New York City Caucasian and Black communities.
COMMENT: Crime and the anxiety associated with feeling unsafe is a dominant issue.
Racism, while neutral, hints at the underlying issue in societies. The low US view aligns with the view that crime will increase (see social cause index Despite all of the controversies over Covid and vaccines, Health care has the highest potential for reputational gain and is poised to make a comeback. Businesses will need to be prepared for disruption and the impact it will have on employees. Any statement, external or internal, by business should be prepared to navigate these issues.
WEEK 2 / FEB / MAR 2023
THE B3 HONESTY INDEX / W2
The past week featured Super Bowl LVII , the shooting down of UAPs across North America, a train derailment and chemical explosion in Ohio, and a devastating earthquake in Turkey. When we ask the same questions to the same panel week after week, most questions demonstrate a feature of belief—stability through time. But there are movers, questions with a marked change in belief, that we focus on here.
COMMENT:
We consider any change greater than 1% worth nothing and a change over 3% a significant trend. The only question in our data that showed a significant trend was the collapse in expected honesty improvement in Social Media. At 27% it is the most pessimistic score in our survey. However, Health Care and Education were also down. Why? Politics.
The start of the Presidential candidates announcing has triggered a negative reaction in the population. The for-profit system in the US is seen as making honesty seem unlikely, as long as big pharma is protected by the government and that quid pro quo relationship exists, perceptions of Honesty will suffer. Education institutions are seen as becoming increasingly flawed due to agendas being pushed on children, and the lack of Honesty and transparency has been highlighted by the pandemic.
What is surprising is that Honesty in the US was up, slightly. Americans continue to look for good in others as they rebuild community. See the Blog Posts on Honesty and Loneliness. Americans are looking for a basis to re-establish bonds lost during Covid.
THE B3 ECONOMIC INDEX / W2
COMMENT:
Belief that spending will increase rose for online, pets, beauty and mental health. It declined for overall consumer spending. The reason is consumer spending tends to focus on bills (e.g. household expenses) which are impacted by inflation. Online shopping is seen as cost effective, which means more spending will continue to shift from brick-and-mortar to online. The surprise this week was automotive, which rose. Good weather, increased inventory and heavy automotive advertising this week (i.e., see the Superbowl) have people more optimistic about car purchases. Don’t get too excited though as automotive is still digging out of the negative (pessimistic) position.
THE B3 SOCIAL INDEX / W2
COMMENT:
Crime and Mental Health stayed essentially flat this week. Racism was a different story. Racism rose this week and the reason is tied to the Honesty Index on Social Media. Racism is seen as increasing due to political distrust, largely stemming from the Republican party seen as emphasizing policies to discriminate, and people blaming their problems on other races. Social media and extreme views have also contributed to the rise in racism. Despite efforts to combat racism, it is likely to continue to be an issue in the future.
WEEK 3 / FEB / MAR 2023
THE B3 HONESTY INDEX / W3
In Week 3, Belief3 starts to reveal the complexities of the US population’s belief structure. In Week 2, we saw the announcement of presidential campaigns trigger a form of PTSD that hurt Honesty, drove up self-care spending and increased racism. In Week 3, the news was relatively quiet with no new presidential campaign announcements and guess what? Those same issues that reacted to last week’s stimulus, started to rebound. The rebound is slightly muted but does appear to be returning. For example, honesty in social media dropped -3.18% in Week 2 and it rose +1.45% in Week 3. Racism rose +1.95% in Week 2 and dropped -0.96% in Week 3.
THE B3 ECONOMIC INDEX / W3
COMMENT:
In Week 3 consumer spending did not follow suit. Consumer spending stayed neutral this week indicating the reason for its decline is not related to politics. Rather, ALL economic indicators were down or neutral with a negative bias. We treat a movement of +/-1% as neutral. If an issue is neutral but consistently trending in one direction, we label it as a neutral with a negative bias. For example, in Week 2 spending on luxury goods declines -0.34%. In Week 3, it declined -0.31%. While technically that represents two neutral weeks with a negative bias. Belief change on luxury goods is more sticky and does not change as fast as other indicators.
WEEK 4 / FEB / MAR 2023
SHARING POWER INCREASES HONESTY
What is interesting is that DNC and RNC sharing of power in Congress is having a positive impact. The US system of checks and balances has translated into the view that sharing power leads to greater honesty.
“Republicans in Congress will try to hold democrats responsible for their actions.”
That does not mean everything is great. Polarized politicians still detract from Honesty and the upcoming election will likely be detrimental to overall honesty.
“Honestly government makes me sad they'll never tell us the truth about anything until it's too late it seems.”
“More lies will be told by candidates running for elected offices and their supporters will believe everything they say.”
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR YOUR BUSINESS?
EVERY business will need to know exactly how the upcoming election impacts THEIR customers. Increased polarization and overall distrust will have an impact on business in unique ways. Instead of attempting to understand a populations belief from inaccurate social listening or single point in time surveys (Opinion pols), a custom Belief3 index for your business can help you successfully navigate belief change from week to week.
THE B3 HONESTY INDEX / W4
This was a slow week for the news and that translated into a stable belief structure in the US. The Honesty Index stayed relatively steady but did creep up slightly. In the absence of news, people tend to be hopeful, and we saw that in the creep.
THE B3 ECONOMIC INDEX / W4
The economic indicators also remained stable, but did not all trend up like Honesty. Instead we see automotive and luxury goods continue to trend down. Self-care purchases are slowing with overall spending. With consumer spending and online spending staying flat, it looks like the economy is finally slowing down. Increased interest rates appear to be cooling down spending.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR YOUR BUSINESS?
Business is going to start to hurt even more so than it has. You need to be prepared to motivate your customer base to prioritize your products. As money gets tight, the lower priority products will get dropped. If you are searching for new market share, this could be an opportunity. A custom Belief3 index for your business can help you unearth customer belief change in product / service priorities from week to week, guiding your messaging to meet the identified belief and influence new behaviors.
THE B3 SOCIAL INDEX / W4
The social issues are following a similar trend with the exception of crime. Crime continues to trend upward. The rough Spring/Summer we saw in Week 1 looks like it is materializing. We can expect politicians to focus on crime and return some normalcy to our cities.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR YOUR BUSINESS?
Social issues have a profound effect on a populations core beliefs. Therefore, businesses must understand these beliefs prior to communication and engagement with their customers. This will prevent unintended negative perceptions and behaviors from forming and placing companies at risk. A custom Belief3 index for your business can help you measure and track the changes of your customers core social beliefs, helping you navigate issues successfully.
